Search for more articles by this author Abstract; Full Text; PDF; Supplemental Material; Add to favorites; Download Citations; Track Citations; Permissions; Reprints; Share on. 61: 2020: El dinero en la economa moderna: una introduccin. Journal of Monetary Economics. In addition to working papers, the NBER disseminates affiliates latest findings through a range of free periodicals the NBERReporter, the NBER Digest, the Bulletin on Retirement and Disability, and the Bulletin on Health as well as online conference reports, video lectures, and interviews. NBER Macroeconomics Annual 34 (1), 199-255, 2020. The interpretation of these trends is controversial. On the Empirical (Ir)Relevance of the Zero Lower Bound Constraint, The Lost Ones: The Opportunities and Outcomes of Non-College Educated Americans Born in the 1960s, Massachusetts Institute of Technology and NBER, University of California, Los Angeles and NBER, Special Deals with Chinese Characteristics, University of California, Berkeley and NBER, Optimal Inflation and the Identification of the Phillips Curve, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, University of California, San Diego and NBER, The 2020 Martin Feldstein Lecture: Journey Across a Century of Women, Summer Institute 2020 Methods Lectures: Differential Privacy for Economists, The Bulletin on Retirement and Disability, Productivity, Innovation, and Entrepreneurship, Conference on Econometrics and Mathematical Economics, Conference on Research in Income and Wealth, Improving Health Outcomes for an Aging Population, Measuring the Clinical and Economic Outcomes Associated with Delivery Systems, Retirement and Disability Research Center, The Roybal Center for Behavior Change in Health, Training Program in Aging and Health Economics, Transportation Economics in the 21st Century, From Good to Bad Concentration? NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH. The zero lower bound (ZLB) irrelevance hypothesis implies that the economy's performance is not affected by a binding ZLB constraint. Sbordone, A. 1 McLeay and Tenreyros argument: the identication problem The Phillips curve is a supply curve. Their empirical work shows that high-quality goods are more intensive in skilled labor than low-quality goods and that household spending on high-quality goods rises with income. They use their model along with case studies for clear superstars (GAFAM) to assess the validity of common proxies for each hypothesis, including measures of concentration, profitability, mark-ups, investment and productivity divergence between laggard and frontier firms. Local political leaders do so because they derive personal benefits, either political or monetary, from providing special deals. The drop in wages depressed the labor supply of men and increased that of women, especially in married couples. Special Deals with Chinese Characteristics Chong-En Bai, Tsinghua University, Chang-Tai Hsieh, University of Chicago and NBER, Zheng Michael Song, Chinese University of Hong Kong Download Slides Download Paper. Centre For Macroeconomics, London, UK. Optimal Inflation and the Identification of the Phillips Curve, NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2019, volume 34, The 2020 Martin Feldstein Lecture: Journey Across a Century of Women, Summer Institute 2020 Methods Lectures: Differential Privacy for Economists, The Bulletin on Retirement and Disability, Productivity, Innovation, and Entrepreneurship, Conference on Econometrics and Mathematical Economics, Conference on Research in Income and Wealth, Improving Health Outcomes for an Aging Population, Measuring the Clinical and Economic Outcomes Associated with Delivery Systems, Retirement and Disability Research Center, The Roybal Center for Behavior Change in Health, Training Program in Aging and Health Economics, Transportation Economics in the 21st Century, Comment on "Optimal Inflation and the Identification of the Phillips Curve". Michael McLeay & Silvana Tenreyro, 2019. " Published: Thomas Drechsel & Silvana Tenreyro, 2017. McLeay and Tenreyro explain why this seemingly exogenous process arises, or, in other words, why it is difficult to empirically identify a Phillips curve, a key building block of the policy framework used by central banks. Bai, Hsieh, and Song argue that China's extraordinary economic growth comes from these special deals. Comment on Accounting for Factorless Income, by Loukas Karabarbounis and Brent Neiman NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2018, 33, pp. Michael McLeay Silvana Tenreyro June 2019 Abstract Several academics and practitioners have pointed out that ination follows a seemingly exogenous statistical process, unrelated to the output gap, leading some to argue that the Phillips curve has weakened or disappeared. McLeay, Michael and Tenreyro, Silvana (2020) Optimal inflation and the identification of the Phillips curve. 267279. 708: 2011: Volatility and development. In this paper we explain why this seemingly exogenous process arises, or, in other words, why it is difficult to empirically identify a Phillips curve, a key building block of the policy framework used by central banks. Jaimovich, Rebelo, Wong, and Zhang study the role that increases in the quality of the goods consumed ("trading up") might have played in the rise of the skill premium that occurred in the last four decades. NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 34 (1). McLeay, Michael and Tenreyro, Silvana (2018) Optimal inflation and the identification of the Phillips Curve. The thirty-fourth volume of the NBER Macroeconomics Annual features theoretical and empirical studies of issues in contemporary macroeconomics and a keynote address by James Stock, a member of President Obama's Council of Economic Advisers from 2013 to All Rights Reserved. From 1984 to 2001, the corresponding standard deviation was 1.6%. 34(1), Michael McLeay & Silvana Tenreyro, 2019. " This targeting rule will impart a negative correlation between inflation and the output gap, blurring the identification of the (positively sloped) Phillips curve. They show why this result need not imply that the Phillips curve does not hold -- on the contrary, their conceptual framework is built under the assumption that the Phillips curve always holds. McLeay, M. and Tenreyro, S. (2019): Optimal Inflation and the Identification of the Phillips Curve, NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2019, Vol. Information about this author at RePEc . The researchers discuss different strategies to circumvent the identification problem and present evidence of a robust Phillips curve in U.S. data. with Michael McLeay in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2019, volume 34, Martin S. Eichenbaum, Erik Hurst, and Jonathan A Commodity Booms and Busts in Emerging Economies with Thomas Drechsel: w23716. 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